We’re set for our final betting prediction and pick from UFC Edmonton as we turn our attention towards the headlining Main Event taking place in the Flyweight (125) Division. Former champion and No. 2-ranked Brandon Moreno will take on No.3-ranked Amir Albazi of Iraq. Check out our UFC odds series for our Moreno-Albazi prediction and pick.
Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) has gone 9-5-2 since joining the UFC back in 2016. He’s a multiple-time world champion in the division and has lost back-to-back fights against Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval. He’s still at the top of his game and could ensure another title shot with a win here. Moreno stands 5’7″ with a 70-inch reach.
Amir Albazi (17-1) comes into this fight with a spotless 5-0 UFC record since 2020. With three finishes under his belt, he most recently defeated Kai Kara-France to earn his ranking and a potential title shot if he’s able to beat the former champion in Moreno. Albazi stands 5’5″ with a 68-inch reach.
UFC Edmonton Odds: Brandon Moreno-Amir Albazi Odds
Brandon Moreno: -175
Amir Albazi: +145
Over 4.5 rounds: -238
Under 4.5 rounds: +180
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Why Brandon Moreno Will Win
Brandon Moreno will be returning to the UFC octagon following a 16-month layoff from the sport following his last loss. He fought an extremely calculated and leveled fight against Brandon Royval and was arguably the better looking fighter by the end of the bout. While the decision didn’t sway his direction, he’s now put together split-decision efforts against two of the best flyweights in the world. He will easily be Albazi’s toughest test and his experience at a championship level will only benefit him during this one.
It’s hard to dismiss Brandon Moreno for all he’s done up to this point and although some may think he lost a step in his game, the long break from fighting could have served him well in rehabbing his body and getting back to championship form. He’s given the last two challengers a run for their money in decision situations, so we should fully expect him to give Albazi his hardest fight up to this point as he works all phases of his skillset.
Why Amir Albazi Will Win
Amir Albazi has had all the makings of a future champion in the Flyweight Division and his path up to this point hasn’t been met with much resistance. He’s a smothering wrestler and will undoubtedly have the advantage in that area of the fight despite Moreno’s solid background in his own right. Albazi does a phenomenal job of controlling wrists on the ground and can land takedowns at a 33% rate while keeping opponents grounded. He’s also lightning fast on the feet and will be a threat to win by knockout as well.
Unbeaten in the Octagon 🫡 @AmirAlbazi looks to step into flyweight title contention with a win in the #UFCEdmonton main event!
Amir Albazi has notched eight wins by submission and six by KO/TKO, so he’s very well-rounded and doesn’t discriminate where he looks to finish the fight. He’s also very fresh in terms of his activity and not taking damage in previous fights, so he’s bound to fight with an aura of confidence behind him knowing he can secure an eventual title shot.
Final Brandon Moreno-Amir Albazi Prediction & Pick
This will be a very high-level fight as both men are at the top of their games. Brandon Moreno has taken ample time off and seems ready to take on his next challenger with his sights set on another title shot. Amir Albazi is certainly a worthy competitor, but we have yet to see how he’ll fair against a former champion like Moreno. He handled Kara-France rather easily and is poised for this title shot sooner rather than later.
I believe the difference in this fight will be Moreno’s patience in the striking and his 66% takedown defense. He’ll also be the slightly bigger body come fight time and while Albazi is much quicker and more athletic, Moreno has seen this type of opponent many times in the past through his rivalry with Deiveson Figueiredo. If Moreno can stuff the takedowns and work behind his jab, he should be able to control this bout with his technical striking and proficiency on the ground.
Let’s roll with the former champion to once again come out on top in this Main Event.
Final Brandon Moreno-Amir Albazi Prediction & Pick: Brandon Moreno (-175)
